Imagine stumbling upon a magical gold coin that doubles in number every 25 years. After 75 years, you’d have eight coins. Fast forward to 1,000 years, and you’d be a trillionaire. In a mere 4,600 years, the weight of your gold coins would surpass that of the observable universe. This phenomenon of periodic doubling is a perfect example of exponential growth.
While the idea of a real-life golden goose coin remains a fantasy, something almost as significant has been experiencing this kind of growth for the past two centuries: the global economy.
Many economists believe that a perpetually growing economy is essential for improving people’s lives. They argue that if the global economy were to stop growing, people would end up fighting over the fixed amount of value that exists, instead of working to generate new value. This leads to a critical question: is infinite growth possible on a finite planet?
Economic growth is measured by tracking the total financial value of everything a country (or the world) produces and sells on the market. These products, which can range from meeting basic needs to improving our individual and collective quality of life, require resources to invent, build, or maintain.
Take a smartphone, for example. Its value stems from the aluminum, gallium, and silicon it contains, which require energy and resources to mine, purify, and turn into a phone. It’s also valuable because of the effort that went into designing the hardware and writing the software.
So, how do we increase the total financial value of all things? One way is to produce more things. Another way is to invent new things. However, growing the economy requires resources and energy. And eventually, won’t we just run out?
Over the past 200 years, economies have become exponentially more efficient at producing value. If we, as a species, can continue to upgrade our economies to become even more efficient, we could theoretically generate more and more value using the same or fewer resources.
The key to increasing efficiency lies in new technologies. However, new tech, while making things more efficient, can also generate new demand, which ends up using more resources.
While we’re not in immediate danger of running out of most resources, we face a much larger and more immediate problem: the global economy, especially those of rich countries, is driving climate change and destroying valuable natural environments on which we all depend.
Economists are divided on the solution. Some believe that new ideas will fix most of these problems, arguing that human ingenuity has also increased exponentially and will rise to meet these challenges in ways we can’t predict.
Others argue for a complete reengineering of our economies. They advocate for a shift to a post-growth economy, where the focus is on improving what we really need, like renewable energy, healthcare, and public transportation.
In a post-growth economy, the assumption that the economy should grow is discarded. Instead, the focus is on improving essential services. This would require rich countries to guarantee living wages, reduce wealth and income inequality, and ensure universal access to public services, like healthcare.
However, this raises other questions: Who defines what’s necessary? How would we resolve the inevitable disagreements? Could we really do away with entire industries?
The approach of “we’ll come up with new ideas to solve these problems” can seem as realistic as a magical gold coin. On the other hand, the “we have to change our economies fundamentally” approach can seem politically daunting, especially in rich countries.
Regardless of the approach, we must find a way to benefit everyone while also taking care of our planet. The challenge lies in striking a balance between economic growth and sustainability.
Create a simulation to visualize exponential growth. Use graphing software or an online tool to plot the growth of the magical gold coin over time. Start with one coin and double it every 25 years. Observe how quickly the number of coins increases and discuss the implications of exponential growth in real-world scenarios.
Divide the class into two groups. One group will argue in favor of infinite economic growth, while the other will advocate for a post-growth economy. Research supporting arguments and present them in a structured debate format. Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each perspective.
Research a country that has experienced significant economic growth in the past century. Analyze the factors that contributed to this growth, such as technological advancements, resource utilization, and policy changes. Present your findings in a report or presentation, highlighting both positive and negative impacts.
Play a resource management game that simulates the challenges of balancing economic growth and sustainability. Games like “SimCity” or “Eco” can provide insights into the complexities of managing resources, developing infrastructure, and addressing environmental concerns. Reflect on the experience and discuss how it relates to the concepts in the article.
Investigate a specific technology that has significantly improved economic efficiency. Examples include renewable energy sources, automation, or advancements in communication. Create a project that explains how this technology works, its impact on the economy, and any potential drawbacks. Present your project to the class.
